Natalia Calvo

Education: Ph.D. in Physics (Atmospheric Physics), Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain. April, 2005.

Current position: Professor, Dpto. Fisica de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain.

Scientific Interest: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics, Troposphere-Stratosphere Coupling, ENSO, Climate Variability.

e-mail: nataliac@ucm.es

Research Activity


Publications: Papers peer-reviewed journals (SCI)


Ayarzagüena B., López-Parages, J., Iza, M., Calvo, N. and Rodríguez-Fonseca, B. (2019): Stratospheric role in interdecadal changes of El Niño impacts over Europe Climate Dynamics, 52, 1173-1186, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4186-3 PDF.

Ayarzagüena B., Palmeiro, F. M., Barriopedro, D., Calvo, N., Langematz, U. and Shibata, K. (2019): On the representation of major stratospheric warmings in reanalyses, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19, 9469-9484, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019.

Abalos M., Polvani L., Calvo N., Kinnison D., Ploeger F., Randel W., Solomon S. (2019): New insights on the impact of ozone depleting substances on the Brewer-Dobson circulation, J. Geophys. Res: Atmospheres, 124, 2435-2451, doi: 10.1029/2018JD029301. Preprint.


Ayarzagüena B., Barriopedro D., Garrido-Perez J.M., Abalos M., de la Cámara A., García-Herrera R., Calvo N., Ordóñez C. (2018): Stratospheric Connection to the Abrupt End of the 2016/2017 Iberian Drought, Geophysical Research Letters, 45(22), 12,639-12,646.

de la Cámara, A., M. Abalos, P. Hitchcock, N. Calvo, and R. R. Garcia (2018): Response of Arctic ozone to sudden stratospheric warmings. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16499-16513, doi:10.5194/acp-18-16499-2018. PDF.


  1. N.Calvo, R.R. Garcia and D.E. Kinnison (2017): Revisiting Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperature trends in WACCM: the role of dynamical forcing.Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, doi: 10.1002/2017GL072792

  2. N.Calvo, M. Iza, M.M. Hurwitz, E.Manzini, C.Peña-Ortiz, A.H. Butler, C.Cagnazzo, S. Ineson, and C.I. Garfinkel (2017): Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Pathway of different El Niño flavors in Stratosphere-Resolving CMIP5 models. J. Clim., (in press)

  3. D.Ivy, S. Solomon, N.Calvo, D.W.J.Thompson (2017): Observed connections of Arctic Stratospheric ozone extremes to Northern Hemisphere surface climate. Environ. Res. Lett., 12, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa57a4

  4. Palmeiro F.M., M. Iza, D. Barriopedro, N. Calvo and R. García-Herrera (2017): The complex behavior of El Niño winter 2015-2016. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2017GL072920


  1. M. Iza, N. Calvo, E. Manzini (2016): The stratospheric pathway of La Niña. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D- 16-0230.1

  2. T. Li, N. Calvo, J. Yue, J. Russell III, A. Smith, M. Mlynczac, A. Chandran, X. Dou, A. Liu (2016): Southern Hemisphere summer mesopause responses to El Niño Southern Oscillation. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D- 15-0816.1

  3. Chiodo G., Garcia-Herrera R., Calvo N., Vaquero J., Barriopedro D., Cabanelas J. and Matthes K. (2016): The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere. Environmental Research Letters,11, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015.

  4. Butler, A.H., A. Arribas, M. Athanassiadou, J. Baehr, N. Calvo, A. Charlton-Perez, M. Deque, D.I.V. Domeisen, K. Froehlich, H. Hendon, Y. Imada, M. Ishii, M. Iza, A. Karpechko, A. Kumar, C. MacLachlan, W.J. Merryfield, W.A. Mueller, A. O'Neill, A.A. Scaife, J. Scinocca, M. Sigmond, T.N. Stockdale, and T. Yasuda (2016): The Climate-system Historical Forecasting Project: Do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter? Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2743.


  1. Calvo, N., Polvani, L. M. and Solomon, S. (2015): On the surface impact of Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 10(9), 094003.

  2. Palmeiro F.M., Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R. and Calvo N. (2015): Comparing Sudden Stratospheric Warming Definitions in Reanalysis Data. J.Clim., 28, 6823-6840, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0004.1

  3. Iza, M., and N. Calvo, 2015: Role of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on the response to Central Pacific El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi:10.1002/2014GL062935.


  1. Barriopedro D., Calvo N. (2014): On the relationship between ENSO, Stratospheric Sudden Warmings and Blocking. J. Clim., 27, 4704-4720, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00770.1

  2. Hurwitz, M.M., N. Calvo, C.I. Garfinkel, A.H. Butler, S. Ineson, C. Cagnazzo, E. Manzini, and C. Peña-Ortiz (2014): Extra-tropical atmospheric response to ENSO in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 43, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2110-z.

  3. Manzini, E., A. Karpechko, J. Anstey, M. Baldwin, R. Black, C. Cagnazzo, N. Calvo, A. Charlton-Perez, B. Christiansen, P. Davini, E. Gerber, M. Giorgetta, L. Gray, S. C. Hardiman, Y.-Y.Lee, D. R. Marsh, B. McDaniel, A. Purich, A. Scaife, D. Shindell, S.-W. Son, S. Watanabe, G. Zappa: Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling. J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi:10.1002/2013JD021403 (2014)

  4. Chiodo G., Marsh D., García-Herrera R., Calvo N., and García J.A. (2014): On the detection of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. DOI:10.5194/acpd-13-30097-2013

  5. Gómez-Escolar M., Fueglistaler S., Calvo N., Barriopedro D. (2014): Tropical Response to Stratospheric Sudden Warmings and its modulation by the QBO. Journal of Geophysical Research, 39 (22), doi: 10.1029/2012GL053632

  6. Palmeiro, F.M., Calvo N. and  Garcia R.R. (2014): Future changes in the Brewer Dobson circulation under different greenhouse gas concentrations. J. Atmos. Sci., 71(8), 2962-2975, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-13-0289.1


  1. Marsh, D. R., M.J. Mills, D.E. Kinnison, J.-F. Lamarque, N. Calvo, L. Polvani (2013): Climate change from 1850 to 2005 simulated in CESM1 (WACCM). J. Climate, 26, 7372-7391, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D- 12-00558.1.

  2. Charlton-Perez A.J., Baldwin M., Birner T., Black R., Bulter A., Calvo N., Davis N., Gerber E., Gillet N., Hardiman S., Kim J., Krueger K., Lee Y.-Y., Manzini E., McDaniel B.A., Polvani L., Reichler T., Shaw T., Sigmond M., Son S.-W., Tohey M., Wilcox L., Yoden S., Christiansen B., Lott F., Shindell D., Yukimoto S., Watanabe S. (2013): On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in the low-top versions of the CMIP5 models. Journal of Geophysical Research.

  3. Li, T., N. Calvo, J. Yue, X. Dou, J. M. Russell III, M. Mlyndzak, C-Y. She, X. Xue (2013): Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Mesosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1-5, doi: 10.1002/grl.50598.

  4. Young P.J., Butler A., Calvo N., Haimberger L., Kushner P.J., Marsh D.R., Randel W.J., Rosenlof K.H. (2013): Agreement in Late twentieth century Southern Hemispehre stratospheric temperature trends in observations and CCMVal2, CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Journal of Geophysical Research.118, 6005-6013, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50126

  5. Hardiman, S., N. Butchart, N. Calvo: The morphology of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and its response to climate change in CMIP5 simulations. Q. J. R. Met. Soc., 140, 1958-1965, doi: 10.1002/gj.2258 (2013).


  1. Gómez-Escolar, M., Fueglistaler S., Calvo N., Barriopedro D. (2012): Changes in polar stratospheric temperature climatology in relation to stratospheric sudden warming occurrence. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L22802, doi:10.1029/2012GL053632.

  2. Calvo N., García R.R., Marsh D.R., Mills M.J., Kinnison D.E., Young P.J. (2012): Reconciling modeled and observed temperature trends over Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L16803, doi:10.1029/2012GL052526.

  3. Gerber E.P., Butler A., Calvo N., Charlton-Pérez A., Giorgetta M., Manzini E., Polvani L.M., Sassi F., Scaife A., Shaw T., Son S.-W., Watanabe S. (2012): Assessing and Understanding the Impact of Stratospheric Dynamics and Variability on Earth System. Bulleting of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00145.1. 

  4. Chiodo G., Calvo N., Marsh D.R., García-Herrera R. (2012): The 11-year solar cycle signal in transient WACCM3.5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D06109, doi:10.1029/2011JD016393


  1. Zubiaurre I., Calvo N. (2011): The ENSO Modoki signal in the stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D06109, doi:10.1029/2011JD016690

  2. Richter, Matthes K., Calvo N., Gray L. (2011): Influence of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation on the frequency of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D20111, doi:10.1029/2011JD015757.

  3. Calvo N., Marsh D.R. (2011): The combined effects of ENSO and the 11 year solar cycle on the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D23112, doi:10.1029/2010JD015226. 


  1. Calvo N., García R.R., Randel W.J., Marsh D.R. (2010): Dynamical mechanism for the increase in tropical upwelling in the lowermost tropical stratosphere during warm ENSO events. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 67, 2331-2340.


  1. Cagnazzo C., Manzini E., Calvo N., Douglass A., Akiyoshi H., Bekki S., Chipperfield M., Dameris M., Deushi M., Fischer A.M., Garny H., Gettelman A., Giorgetta M.A., Plummer D., Rozanov E., Shepherd T.G., Shibata K., Stenke A., Struhers H., Tian W. (2009): Northern winter stratospheric temperatures and ozone responses to ENSO inferred from an ensemble of Chemisry Climate Models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, 8935-8948.  

  2. Randel W.J., García R.R., Calvo N., Marsh D. (2009): ENSO influence on zonal mean temperature and ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L15822, doi:10.1029/2009GL039343.

  3. Calvo N., García R.R. (2009): Wave forcing of the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere under increasing greehouse gas concentration. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 66, 3184-3196. doi: 10.1175/2009JAS3085.1

  4. Calvo N., Giorgetta M.A., García-Herrera R., Manzini E. (2009): Correction on Non-linearity of the combined effect of El Nino and QBO effects on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex in MAECHAM5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D20117.

  5. Calvo N., Giorgetta M.A., Garcia-Herrera R., Manzini E. (2009): Non-linearity of the combined warm ENSO and QBO effects on the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex in MAECHM5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D13109. doi:10.1029/2008JD011445


  1. Calvo N., García-Herrera R., García R. (2008): The ENSO signal in the Stratosphere. Annals of the New York Academy of Science, 1146, 16-31

  2. Peña-Ortiz C., García-Herrera R., Ribera P., Calvo N. (2008): Asymmetries on the QBO Signature on the Mid to High latitudes Circulation of the Stratosphere. Annals of the New York Academy of Science, 1146, 32-49.


  1. Gallego D., García-Herrera R., Calvo N., Ribera P. (2007): A new meteorological record for Cadiz (Spain) 1806-1854. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D12108, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008517  

  2. Calvo N., Giorgetta M.A., Peña-Ortiz C. (2007): Sensitivity of the boreal winter circulation in the middle atmosphere to the quasi-biennial oscillation in MAECHAM5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D10124, doi: 10.10296/2006JD007844.


  1. García-Herrera R., Calvo N., García R.R., Giorgetta M.A. (2006): Propagation of ENSO temperature signals into the middle atmosphere: a comparison of two general circulation models and ERA-40 reanalysis data. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D06101, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006061.


  1. Prieto M.R., Gallego D., García-Herrera R., Calvo N. (2005): Deriving Wind Force Terms from Nautical Reports through Content Analysis. The Spanish and the French cases. Climatic Change, 73, 1-2, 37-55

  2. García-Herrera R., Wilkinson W., Koek F.B., Prieto M.R., Calvo N., Hernández E. (2005): Description and general background to ships’ logbooks as a source of climatic data. Climatic Change, 73, 1-2, 13-36.


  1. Calvo N., García R.R., García-Herrera R., Gallego D., Gimeno L., Hernández E., Ribera P. (2004): Analysis of the ENSO signal in tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures observed by MSU, 1979-2000. Journal of Climate, 17, 3934-3945

  2. Ribera P., Gallego D., Gimeno L., Pérez J.F., García-Herrera R., Hernández E., de la Torre L., Nieto R., Calvo N. (2004): The use of equivalent temperature to analyse climate variability. Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica, 48, 459-468

  3. Ribera P., Gimeno L., Gallego D., García-Herrera R., Hernández, de la Torre L., Nieto R., Calvo N. (2004): Three Aproaches for determining extreme years of global atmospheric temperatura. Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica, 48, 447-458.


  1. Ribera P., Gallego D., Peña-Ortiz C., Gimeno L., García-Herrera R., Hernández E., Calvo N. (2003): The stratospheric QBO signal in the NCEP reanalysis, 1958-2001. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 13, 1691, doi:10.1029/2003GL017131

  2. García-Herrera R., Gallego D., Hernandez E., Gimeno L., Ribera P., Calvo N. (2003): Precipitation Trends in the Canary Islands. International Journal of Climatology, 23, 235-241.

Other publications

  1. Coauthor of CCMVal2 Report (Chemistry Climate Models Validation, 2) Chapter 8 (Natural Variability of Stratospheric Ozone) part of the SPARC Project  (Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate) SPARC CCMVal (2010). SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models. V. Eyring, T. G. Shepherd, D. W. Waugh (Eds.), SPARC Report No. 5, WCRP-132, WMO/TD-No. 1526, http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/ SPARC.

  2. Gimeno L., de la Torre L., Ribera P., Calvo N. (2012): El papel de la estratosfera en el sistema climático. Revista de la Real Sociedad Española de Física, 26-2. Abril-Junio 2012.

  3. Manzini E., Calvo N., Gerber E., Giorgetta M., Perlwitz J., Polvani L., Sassi F., Scaife A., Shaw T. (2011):  Report on the SPARC DynVar workshop 2 on Modelling the Dynamics and Variability of the Stratosphere-Troposphere System. SPARC Newsletters, 36.

  4. Calvo N., Hernández E., García-Herrera R. (2009): The upward propagation of the ENSO signal towards the stratosphere: an Overview. Recent Advances in Meteorology and Climatology, 21. ISSN: 0214-4557

  5. Calvo N., García-Herrera R., Gimeno L., Hernández E., Gallego D., Ribera P. (2001): Characterization of  ENSO impact  on tropospheric MSU temperaturas. Proceedings 1st International Conference on Global Warming and the Next Ice Age. Ch’ylek P., Lennis G. Eds

Participation in Funded Research Projects

  1. StratoClim (STRATOspheric and upper tropospheric processes for better CLIMate predictions) Ref. 603557. Funding Agency: European Commission, FP7 Program. Funding: 145.352 €. PI (Spain): N. Calvo. 2014-2016

  2. MATRES (Mecanismos y Variabilidad del Acoplamiento TRoposfera-EStratosfera) CGL2012-34221.Funding Agency: Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Spanish Government). Proyectos de Investigación Fundamental No Orientada 2012. Funding: 74.000 €. P.I.: D. Barriopedro. 2013-2016

  3. Modelización de las Fuentes de Humedad en la Región Mediterránea CGL2008-05968-C02-01. Funding Agency: MCINN (Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Spanish Government)  Ayudas a proyectos de investigación 2008. Funding: 157.300 €. PI: Luis Prieto. 2009-2012

  4. TRODIM (DIagnosis and Modelization of the extratropical TROpopause). CGL2007-65891-C-05-02. Funding Agency: MEC (Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, Spanish Government). Ayudas a proyectos de investigación 2007. Funding: 695.750 € (subproyect: 153.670 €). PI: N. Calvo (since 2010). 2007-2010

  5. WaVaCS (Atmospheric Water Vapour in the Climate System). COST Program. Funding Agency: European Union. PI: F. Fierli. 2007-2010

  6. TROPEX (Permeabilidad Dinámica de la TROPopausa EXtratropical). CGL2005-07288-C05-02. Funding Agency: MEC (Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, Spanish Government) Ayudas a proyectos de investigación 2005. Funding: 7140 €. PI: R. García-Herrera. 2005-2006

  7. DINPRE (DINámica de la PREcipitación en la Península Ibérica: fuentes de humedad, inestabilidades, modos de variabilidad e impactos) CGL2004-05187/CO3-01. Funding Agency: MEC (Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, Spanish Government) Ayudas a proyectos de investigación 2004. Funding: 74.750 €. PI: E. Hernández. 2005-2008

  8. VALIMOD (VALIdación climática de MODelos conceptuales a escala sinóptica, compatibilidad con regímenes cuasiestacionarios de circulación y efectos sobre la Península Ibérica). REN2002-04558-C04-02. Funding agency: MEC (Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología, Spanish Government) Plan Nacional I+D. Funding: 198.000 € (subproyect: 57.500 €). PI: R. García. 2002-2005.

  9. CLIWOC (Climatological Database for the World’s Oceans 1750-1850). Funding agency: European Union. PI: R. García. 2000-2003.

  10. Determinacion de la infuencia de situaciones sinopticas tipicas en las variables meteorologicas observadas sobre el trazado de la via de alta velocidad Guadalajara-Lerida. Funding agency: Fundación de Ferrocarriles Españoles-Gestor de Infraestructuras Ferroviarias. PI: E. Hernández. 2002-2003

  11. Caracterización de Situaciones Sinóptica Típicas y su Influencia en el Viento sobre Orografía Compleja para el Trazado de la Vía de Alta Velocidad Guadalajara-Zaragoza. Funding agency: Fundación de Ferrocarriles Españoles-Gestor de Infraestructuras Ferroviarias. PI: E. Hernández. 2001-2002