Blanca Ayarzagüena


Current position: Lecturer at Universidad Complutense de Madrid.


Scientific Interests: large-scale dynamics, stratosphere-troposphere coupling, sea ice loss, climate variability and change


e-mail: bayarzag@ucm.es     Google Scholar


Education: Ph.D. in Atmospheric Physics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM).


Former affiliations

Researcher at Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Personal postdoctoral en formación en docencia e investigación en la UCM), 2017-2019

Postdoctoral Research Fellow. University of Exeter, UK, 2015-2017.

Postdoctoral Researcher. Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany, 2012-2015.

PhD Student. Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain, 2008-2012.

Peer-reviewed Publications


Lawrence, Z. D., Abalos, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Barriopedro, D., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., de la Cámara, A., Charlton-Perez, A., Domeisen, D. I. V., Dunn-Sigouin, E., García-Serrano, J., Garfinkel, C. I., Hindley, N. P., Jia, L., Jucker, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Kim, H., Lang, A. L., Lee, S. H., Lin, P., Osman, M., Palmeiro, F. M., Perlwitz, J., Polichtchouk, I., Richter, J. H., Schwartz, C., Son, S.-W., Statnaia, I., Taguchi, M., Tyrrell, N. L., Wright, C. J., and Wu, R. W.-Y. (2022): Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems , Weather Climate Dynamics, 3, 977-1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022.

Rodríguez-Montes, M., Ayarzagüena, B., and Guijarro, M. (2022): Polar night jet characterization through artificial intelligence , Computers & Geosciences, 166, 105176

Dorado-Liñán, I., Ayarzagüena, B., Babst, F. et al. (2022): Jet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth, Nature Communications, 13, 2015

González-Alemán, J.J., Grams, C., Ayarzagüena, B., Zurita, P., Domeisen, D., Gómara, I., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B. and Vitart, F. (2022): Tropospheric role in the predictability of the surface impact of the 2018 sudden stratospheric warming event, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2021GL095464

Scheffler, J., Ayarzagüena, B., Langematz, U. and Orsolini, Y. (2022): Elevated Stratopause Events in the Current and a Future Climate: A Chemistry-Climate Model Study, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 227, 105804


Ayarzagüena, B., Manzini, E., Calvo, N., and Matei, D. (2021): Interaction between decadal-to-multidecadal ocean variability and sudden stratospheric warmings, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1504, 215-229.

Baldwin, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H., Gerber, E. P., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U. and Pedatella, N. M. (2021): Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, Reviews of Geophysics, 59, e2020RG000708


Ayarzagüena, B., Charlton-Perez, A. J. et al. (2020): Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere-troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD032345, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032345

Kelleher M. E., Ayarzagüena, B., and Screen J. A. (2020): Inter-seasonal Connections Between the Timing of the Stratospheric Final Warming and Arctic Sea Ice , Journal of Climate, 33, 3079-3092, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0064.1.

Domeisen D.I.V, Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ayarzagüena, B., et al. (2020): The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction. Part II: Predictability arising from stratosphere -troposphere coupling, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD030923.

Domeisen D.I.V, Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ayarzagüena, B., et al. (2020): The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction. Part I: Predictability of the stratosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD030920.


Ayarzagüena B., Palmeiro, F. M., Barriopedro, D., Calvo, N., Langematz, U. and Shibata, K. (2019): On the representation of major stratospheric warmings in reanalyses, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19, 9469-9484, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019.

Thieblemont R., Ayarzagüena B., Matthes K., Bekki S., Abalichin J. and Langematz U. (2019): Drivers and surface signal of inter-annual variability of boreal stratospheric final warmings Journal of Geophysical Research, 124, 5400-5417, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029852.

Ayarzagüena B., López-Parages, J., Iza, M., Calvo, N. and Rodríguez-Fonseca, B. (2019): Stratospheric role in interdecadal changes of El Niño impacts over Europe Climate Dynamics, 52, 1173-1186, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4186-3 PDF.


Ayarzagüena B., Barriopedro D., Garrido-Perez J.M., Abalos M., de la Cámara A., García-Herrera R., Calvo N., Ordóñez C. (2018): Stratospheric Connection to the Abrupt End of the 2016/2017 Iberian Drought, Geophysical Research Letters, 45(22), 12,639-12,646.

Ayarzagüena B., Ineson, S., Dunstone, N. J., Baldwin, M. P. and Scaife A. A. (2018): Intrasesonal effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on North Atlantic Climate Journal of Climate, 31, 8861-8873, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0097.1

Ayarzagüena B., et al (2018): No Robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: A Multi-model assessment from CCMI Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18, 11277-11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 PDF.


Díaz-Durán A., Serrano E., Ayarzagüena B., Abalos M., and de la Cámara A. (2017): Intra-seasonal variability of extreme boreal stratospheric polar vortex events and their precursors. Climate Dynamics, 49, 3473–3491, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3524-1.


Rodriguez-Fonseca, B., Suarez-Moreno, R., Ayarzagüena B., Lopez-Parages, J., Gomara,I., Villamayor, J., Mohino, E., Losada, R. and Castaño-Tierno A. (2016): A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal. Atmosphere, 7, 87, doi:10.3390/atmos7070087. PDF.

Ayarzagüena B., and J. A. Screen (2016): Future Arctic sea ice loss reduces severity of cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes.Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 2801–2809, doi: 10.1002/2016GL068092. PDF.


Lopez-Bustins, J.A., Serrano E., Ayarzagüena B. , and Sanchez-Lorenzo, A. (2015): Spatial and temporal temperature trends in the lower stratosphere during the extended boreal winter from reanalyses. International Journal of Climatology, 35, 3888-3901, doi: 10.1002/joc.4253.

Ayarzagüena B., Orsolini, Y.J., Langematz, U., Abalichin J. and Kubin A. (2015): The Relevance of the Location of Blocking Highs for Stratospheric Variability in a Changing Climate. Journal of Climate, 28, 531–549, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00210.1. PDF.


Ayarzagüena B., Langematz, U., Meul, S., Oberländer, S., Abalichin, J., and Kubin A. (2013): The role of climate change and ozone recovery for the future timing of major stratospheric warmings. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 2460–2465, doi:10.1002/grl.50477. PDF.


Ayarzagüena B., Langematz, U., and Serrano E. (2011): Tropospheric forcing of the stratosphere: A comparative study of the two different major stratospheric warmings in 2009 and 2010. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 116, D18114, doi: 10.1029/2010JD015023. PDF.


Ayarzagüena, B., and Serrano E. (2009): Monthly Characterization of the Tropospheric Circulation over the Euro-Atlantic Area in Relation with the Timing of Stratospheric Final Warmings. Journal of Climate, 22, 6313-6324, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2913.1. PDF.


Book Chapters and other publications

Gerber, E. P., Martineau, P. (Lead Authors), and 15 co-authors including Ayarzagüena, B. (2021): Chapter 6: Extratropical stratosphere-troposphere coupling, SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) Final Report.

Ayarzagüena, B., Baldwin, M., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H., Gerber, E. P., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U. and Pedatella, N. M. (2021): Sudden stratospheric warmings: a phenomenon with global effects. SPARC newsletter, 57, 8-11, ISSN: 1225-4680.

Baldwin, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Garny, H., Gerber, E. P., Hegglin, M. I., Langematz, U. and Pedatella, N. M. (2021): Global effects of disruptions to the stratospheric circulation. EOS, 102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO157568.

Langematz, U., Ayarzagüena B. , Birner, T., Budde, M., Garny, H., Gerber, E., Godin-Beekmann, S., Hitchcock, P., Hubert, D., Lossow, S., Meul, S., Oberländer, S., Riese, M., and Stenke, A. (2016): Stratospheric change and its role for climate prediction (SHARP2016). SPARC newsletter, 47, 20-23, ISSN: 1225-4680.

Rodríguez-Fonseca B., Rodríguez-Puebla C. (Ayarzagüena, B. , contributing autor) (2010): Climate teleconnections affecting Iberian Peninsula climate variability. Predictability and expected changes. [in The Spanish CLIVAR Report - Climate in Spain: Past, Present and Future. CLIVAR and MICINN (F. F. Pérez, R. Boscolo Eds.)], ISBN: 978-84-614-8115-6, pp. 53-67

de la Cámara, A., J. García-Serrano, B. Ayarzagüena, M. Abalos, B. González, and E. Serrano (2009): ENSO influence on the variability modes of the boreal winter stratosphere. Física de la Tierra, 21, 167-178. Universidad Complutense de Madrid.